What does this year prepare for us?
Oleksandra Bondarska, Analytical Department of APPU
At the situation created on the pork market at the beginning of the year it is difficult to evade panic. Devaluation of hryvhia, lightning-like growing price on raw materials, gasoline, veterinary drugs… For how long does the black streak last?
The index of branch attraction — price on live market — has the secondary role, as the key factor is the balance between the price on live pigs and raw material price (feed). 2014 occurred quite successful for pig men, as during several months the index held out in the “green space” (comfort zone).
As for live pigs price, the general growing trend has to be mentioned. So, if match the price in hryvnas of the 7th week 2015 and the relevant period of the last year, we have 27% gain. However, the present price expressed in dollars has decreased more than by a factor of 2.5: with a point of 2.32 USD to record-low 87 cents per kilo. That’s why, the positive dynamics in hryvnias cannot make a compensation for price hike on raw materials and other production components and, hence, the prime cost don’t pay off.
Last year the traditional market peaks were seen. The first one was spring, it felt to April: the splash of consumer activity in pre-Easter period. The second peak (in summer) took place in August-September, while the usual pre-New Year one, at the end of 2014, wasn’t so notable and long-term, as expected. Its smoothness is explained by decline in demand because the notable come-down of population paying capacity.
- Why does the index of branch attraction decline?
- What from will depend the seasonal “peaks” of pig farming profitability in 2015?
- What should pig men wait from the future?
- Is weak hryvna good? And why?
